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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.