Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
